Postseason basketball is back! The grueling 82-game regular season in the NBA wrapped up on Sunday, and now 20 teams remain (eight in the play-in tournament field) in the mix to win the NBA Finals this season, including the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who finished with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the third straight season.
When it comes to betting on the NBA Finals, there is one trend that I always reference because it has been a predictor of the title winner in nearly 30 straight seasons. The NBA champion since the 1996-97 season has come out of the top eight teams in the league in net rating during the regular season, meaning Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Boston, Denver, Detroit, New York, Houston or Charlotte would need to win it all to keep this trend intact this season. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.
The eight teams for the 2025-26 season:1. OKC 2. Pistons3.
Spurs 4. Celtics 5. Knicks 6.
Rockets 7. Nuggets 8. Hornets— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 13, 2026With the play-in tournament set to begin on Tuesday night, I’ve decided to rank each of the team’s based on their odds to win the title.
NBA Finals Odds for Every Team Ahead of Play-In TournamentOdds via DraftKings SportsbookOklahoma City Thunder: +110San Antonio Spurs: +500Boston Celtics: +550Denver Nuggets: +950Cleveland Cavaliers: +1600New York Knicks: +1800Detroit Pistons: +2200Houston Rockets: +6000Minnesota Timberwolves: +9000Atlanta Hawks: +13000Philadelphia 76ers: +17000Charlotte Hornets: +17000Los Angeles Lakers: +25000Toronto Raptors: +25000Orlando Magic: +35000Phoenix Suns: +60000Los Angeles Clippers: +70000Miami Heat: +70000Golden State Warriors: +80000Portland Trail Blazers: +200000There is a clear drop off in the odds after Detroit, and Minnesota and Houston are the only two teams after the Pistons with shorter than +13000 odds to win the NBA Finals. I’ve decided to power rank all of these teams based on their latest Finals odds, their path in the playoffs and where they stacked up during the regular season. The True Title ContendersOklahoma City Thunder (+110)Oklahoma City has the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA, and the path to the Western Conference Finals could be pretty easy with the Los Angeles Lakers banged up and the Houston Rockets expected to advance to the second round as the No.
5 seed. OKC has been favored to win the title all season long, and it finally was able to get healthy towards the end of the regular season. Bettors should prepare for the Thunder to at least reach the Western Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
Denver Nuggets (+950)I have Denver as my No. 2 team – even though it’s fourth in the odds – because we’ve seen Nikola Jokic and this Nuggets core win a title before. Denver has a tough road to the Finals with Minnesota in round one and San Antonio looming in round two, but the Nuggets also won 12 games in a row to earn the No.
3 seed in the West, including two wins over the Spurs. Jokic is still the best player in the world – in my opinion – and I like this price for the Nuggets since they did take OKC to seven games in the 2024-25 season. Boston Celtics (+550)Jayson Tatum is back, and the Boston Celtics have skyrocketed to the favorite in the Eastern Conference as a result.
The C’s – like Denver – have won a title before with Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the way, and they finished the regular season in the top five in the NBA in offensive, defensive and net rating. San Antonio Spurs (+500)Can Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs really win a title? A 62-win regular season and a 4-1 mark against OKC suggests that the Spurs are as good as anyone, but there is a lack of playoff experience on the roster.
Historically, inexperienced teams almost never reach the NBA Finals, never mind win them. That being said, Wemby is the best defensive player in the league, and the Spurs should roll in the first round against a play-in opponent. Oddsmakers have them set with the second-best odds to win it all this season.
The Second-Tier Title ContendersNew York Knicks (+1800)After making the Eastern Conference Finals last season, the Knicks are back in the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference and finished the regular season fifth in the league in net rating. New York could win the title, but it didn’t exactly fare well against some of the best teams in the league (0-5 against Detroit and OKC) despite winning three of four games against Boston.
The Knicks have an identity with Jalen Brunson leading a strong starting five, but the Knicks’ defense needs to hold up in the playoffs if it wants to make a run to the Finals. Detroit Pistons (+2200)Cade Cunningham’s return is huge for a Detroit team that is No. 2 in net rating and defensive rating this season, sitting in the top spot in the East.
I love the draw for the Pistons, especially if they can avoid Charlotte in the play-in tournament.